Bitcoin Jumps After Softer U.S. Inflation — But the CPI Record Has a Few Missing Pages

When the January inflation numbers hit at 8:30 a.m. in New York, the headline was… polite. Year-over-year CPI came in at 2.4%, a hair below the whisper that had been floating around, while core CPI (that’s the version that ignores food and fuel drama) checked in at 2.5% — basically what people expected. Month-to-month, headline was up about 0.2% and core around 0.3%. Nothing explosive, but plenty of little plot twists hiding inside the categories.

What the detail actually looked like

Digging under the headline: shelter was the big contributor to the rise, up about 0.2% for the month and roughly 3.0% over the year. Energy behaved like a moody roommate and fell, with gasoline down in the low single digits for the month. Airline fares exploded higher for the month, used cars slid, and motor vehicle insurance gave up a little ground. Over 12 months, food was hanging around near 2.9% while energy nudged slightly negative.

Why the nuance matters: the top-line number can look tame while people still feel price pain in the places that matter — rent, food, insurance — because those components move differently and often lag behind the shiny headline.

Data gaps, the Fed timeline, and the forecasting circus

The plot thickens because the official CPI record isn’t perfectly contiguous. The government shutdown last year delayed some releases, leaving gaps in the October and November 2025 CPI data. When the official ledger has holes, models and nowcasts get promoted from helpful to heroic — which means confidence in the exact path of inflation is fuzzier than usual.

Speaking of nowcasts: model estimates are already penciling in February’s numbers and nudging market expectations in real time. Policymakers are watching, too. The Fed kept its policy rate range steady in January at 3.5%–3.75%, and a couple of officials even signaled they preferred an earlier cut, which tells you there’s internal debate. The calendar matters: the next CPI release is scheduled for March 11, and the Fed meets March 17–18. Those two mornings will be the ones traders circle in red ink.

Why yields, stablecoins and Bitcoin care about all this

Markets don’t just read headlines — they price futures. A simple barometer is the 2-year Treasury yield, which sits in the mid 3% range and acts like a base-level temptation for money that could otherwise chase risk. When that yield drifts higher, risk assets need to look juicier to lure capital. When it eases, risk becomes more appealing.

In crypto-land, stablecoins are the backstage cash — a roughly $307 billion pool of near-cash that traders rotate from when boredom or fear sets in. When that pool leans into risk, bitcoin can run; when it leans into yield and certainty, risk backs off. Case in point: bitcoin jumped roughly 6% intraday on the softer CPI print and flirted with $70,000 again, but it failed repeatedly around the low $71,000s and printed a lower high on the move, which is a classic sign buyers might be getting tired.

Bottom line: softer inflation nudges the conversation toward rate cuts over time, and that changes front-end yields, which changes risk appetite — and crypto tends to react to the mood swings faster than most other markets. With a few CPI releases and a Fed meeting coming up, traders will be watching shelter, yields, and that stablecoin pile to decide whether this was a blip or the start of something bigger.

Key dates to scribble on your calendar: March 11 for the next CPI print, and March 17–18 for the Fed meeting. Pack snacks; it’ll be a data-heavy week.