XRP ETFs absorbed nearly $1 billion in 18 days, yet the price is flashing a major warning signal

XRP ETFs absorbed nearly $1 billion in 18 days, yet the price is flashing a major warning signal

ETF money keeps piling in — but the price isn’t partying

Here’s the weird crypto plot twist: in just over two weeks, XRP-focused ETFs have gobbled up almost $1 billion in steady inflows across multiple products, day after day, with barely a peep of redemptions. You’d think that much cash heading for a token would light a fire under the price, but XRP is stuck around $2.09 and is about 20% lower than it was a month ago. That’s the eyebrow-raising mismatch we’re trying to unpack.

Think of the buyers piling into these ETFs as the “set-it-and-forget-it” crowd — people buying exposure the same way they buy into the S&P 500, via regulated funds, custodial services and retirement accounts. They’re not scalpers or thrill-seekers. These are monthly contributions, automated allocations, and advisor-model flows that don’t flinch at daily drama. That steady demand explains the seemingly unstoppable inflow streak.

Why the pump didn’t happen (and why the market looks a bit fragile)

So if billions are going into ETFs, why isn’t the price jumping? Two words: sellers elsewhere. Derivatives markets and exchange activity are doing a lot of heavy lifting — and not in a friendly way. On major perpetual futures venues, sell-side pressure has been noticeable, with taker-sell metrics climbing to levels not seen since late last year. In plain English: traders are actively hitting bids and taking chips off the table.

At the same time, futures open interest has plunged substantially, from about 1.7 billion XRP to roughly 0.7 billion XRP — a massive unwind of leveraged positions. Funding rates, which reward longs or shorts for holding positions, have cooled off dramatically too; the average short-term funding moved from around 0.01% to something like 0.001%, signaling that speculative urgency has evaporated.

Put those pieces together and you get this picture: passive ETF inflows are scooping up supply just as leveraged traders devolveraging on exchanges are stepping out. The inflows aren’t driving a speculative rally so much as acting like a sponge, soaking up sell orders that would otherwise push the market down further.

The on-chain story adds another flavor of weird. Transaction velocity on the ledger has ticked up, suggesting more movement between wallets, but the total fees paid on the network have plunged — down by nearly 90% since earlier this year. That combo usually points to efficient, low-cost rebalancing activity (think bots, AMMs, or exchange plumbing) rather than big-ticket settlement transactions. In short: the network’s busy, but not in the way that always creates price pressure.

All this creates a dual-track market: one lane is composed of slow-moving, regulated capital that treats XRP ETFs like any other asset in a diversified portfolio. The other lane is fast, reactive crypto-native trading that responds to leverage, funding and order flow. Right now those lanes are offsetting each other — passive buyers steadying the ship as speculative positions unwind.

That balance works — until it doesn’t. If ETF inflows slow or if derivatives selling picks up again, the current equilibrium could tip quickly. In other words, the calm looks a bit like a truce, not a permanent peace treaty.

So yes, the headline is catchy: nearly $1 billion in 18 days. The takeaway is messier: ETFs are changing who holds XRP and how it behaves, but speculative market dynamics and on-chain plumbing still have the power to steer price action — sometimes in ways that make charts frown rather than smile.