5 Clear Signals That Reveal If the Bitcoin Bull Run Is Still Alive

Bitcoin headlines love drama: everybody’s buying, institutions are piling in, and the moon is apparently on the schedule. Then prices stumble and suddenly the narrative turns into a group text full of panic emojis. If you want something a little less Hollywood and a little more useful, here are five real, boring-but-important signals that tell you whether the bull run is actually still happening—or just pretending to be at a party.

Five telltale signs that the bull run is alive (or faking it)

1) ETF flows: creations vs. redemptions. The simplest check is who’s buying on the spot market. When the big spot ETFs are creating shares, that means someone is converting cash into actual Bitcoin and shoving a daily bid under the market. When they’re redeeming, those authorized participants are selling the underlying BTC into the open market. A string of heavy redemptions can flip the ETF bid into supply and knock the legs out of a rally.

2) Futures basis and perpetual funding. If the futures premium (the basis) is healthy, it fuels carry-trade demand and gives institutions a reason to buy in rallies. If that premium cools and perp funding goes neutral or negative, long positions lose their incentive and liquidation cascades become likelier—exactly the sort of thing that turns small sell pressure into a big move down.

3) Macro backdrop: dollar strength and real yields. Bitcoin isn’t immune to the wider macro machine. A firmer US dollar and stubborn real yields mean less global liquidity for risk assets. When the dollar surges around the high-90s or real yields stay elevated, bounces in crypto tend to fizzle unless flows are strongly positive.

4) Supply overhangs: trustee distributions and miners. Big, predictable sellers matter. Trustee distributions (the kind that drip out over long timelines) and miners monetizing treasuries on weaker days are recurring sources of supply. Even if sales are staggered, they create an overhang that tightens risk tolerance when price tries to rally.

5) On-chain and cycle indicators. Classic cycle tools—multiyear moving averages, Pi-cycle-ish metrics, RHODL-style signals—tell you whether market participants are euphoric or cautious. If those metrics aren’t flashing extreme greed near the highs and instead are sliding toward mean reversion, the cycle may be grinding out slower returns than previous bull runs.

Reading the signals: scenarios and what to watch next

So what happens if the signs line up? There are three reasonable short-term outcomes to keep in mind:

– The distribution path: If ETFs keep running net outflows, basis stays subdued, and funding is flat to negative, the market is in distribution. Failing to reclaim major pivots leaves round numbers like $100k as the next battleground, with the mid-to-high $90k range reachable on further red sessions.

– The digestion path: If flows wobble but aren’t massively negative, basis stabilizes in the mid-single digits and the dollar rests in a neutral band, Bitcoin is likely to chop between $100k and about $106k while liquidity rebuilds and traders decide whether to come back in.

– The rebound path: The bullish case needs a noticeable return of multi-day net creations across the ETF complex (think hundreds of millions over several sessions), a pickup in basis into the high single-digits or low double-digits, and a softer dollar. That mix could push price into a fresh retest around $110k–$115k and revive the “are we still in a bull run?” debate.

The practical checklist I use (because I like lists and because they calm my crypto anxiety): watch daily issuer-level flows, keep an eye on the CME basis and perp funding, and don’t ignore macro moves in the dollar and yields. When all those lines point the same way, price follows. When they disagree, expect drama and chop.

Final note: none of this is destiny—just a flow-and-macro snapshot. Treat it like a weather forecast: useful for planning, not a prophecy. This is not financial advice; it’s just me shouting market observations across the internet. Stay curious, and keep your stop-losses where your heart can sleep at night.