Bitcoin Drawn to CME Gap Around $104K as Shutdown Relief Sparks Risk-On Vibes
What’s the CME gap fuss?
Short version: futures left a chunk of price action hanging out like a missing puzzle piece. CME Bitcoin futures closed Friday at $104,160 and reopened Sunday at $110,370, creating a gap from about $104k up to $110k. That empty band often acts like a magnet for fast moves — traders love to watch whether spot will retrace back through it or shrug and keep climbing.
Right now spot BTC is trading in the roughly $105k–$106k neighborhood, so it sits roughly halfway into that empty zone. Historically, more than two-thirds of similar weekend gaps since 2022 have been filled within about 48 hours, though every now and then one lives to annoy traders for longer.
How traders are reading the charts
Market mood brightened over the weekend after progress toward ending a government shutdown eased some fiscal worry — equities, crypto and gold all got a bit of a bounce. The dollar softened and Treasury yields pulled back, which makes riskier stuff like Bitcoin look more attractive in the short term.
There are a couple of obvious game plans being priced in by short-term players. If spot pushes decisively below the lower edge around $104k, expect quick unwind action that could drag price into the $102k–$103k area where liquidity shows up on order books. Traders call that “finishing the fill” when spot goes back through the gap band.
On the flip side, if buyers hold the line near $106k and momentum keeps running, the gap could stay unfilled for a while while futures and spot realign without a deep retrace. A sustained grip above roughly $106k–$107k would be read as resilience and could reduce the odds of a dramatic backtrack.
Context matters: since late summer there have been four notable weekend gaps — three resolved in a day or two and one stuck around for more than a week before finally filling. So expect some compression of volatility, quick moves, and the occasional surprise.
Bottom line: intraday setups are focused on that $104k–$110k band. Watch the $104k floor for downside risk and the $106k–$107k area for signs the market prefers to keep moving up instead of retracing. Buckle up — the gap party could be over fast, or it could hang around long enough to make things spicy.