Bitcoin Missed Its $95K Boxing Day Record — A Signal That Demands Immediate Attention

Boxing Day: my annual Bitcoin mood ring

Every year I make the same cup of tea, pull up the chart, and pretend the December 26 close is some grand oracle. Spoiler: it isn’t magical, but it’s a neat little snapshot. That single daily close tends to sum up how the market spent the last 12 months — whether it was partying, nursing wounds, or just snoozing on the couch.

In the early days Bitcoin’s Boxing Day was practically a footnote — tiny volumes, chat-room trading, and every movement felt like a lab experiment. As the years passed, the holiday close began to reflect real shifts: policy shocks, exchange meltdowns, halving cycles, waves of new participants, and the occasional circus of FOMO.

Fast forward through the decade and the pattern becomes obvious. Big policy moves and major exchange drama left visible dents; euphoric rallies pushed holiday closes high; regulatory fiascos and market meltdowns dragged them down. By 2024 the market had done so much heavy lifting that the December 26 print almost hit a record near the $95k mark. In 2025 the same date felt quieter — the price was lower, macro headlines were louder, and traders were a little more cautious as they headed into the holidays.

What that single Boxing Day print actually tells you (and what might change it)

Let’s be blunt: Boxing Day is not destiny, it’s a summary. It tells you where sentiment ended up after a year of headlines, policy decisions, flows, and miner behavior. If the close is up near the annual highs, the year was broadly constructive. If it sits well below those highs, the market probably spent the year repairing or rethinking itself.

Four things tend to move the holiday bar more than superstition does: central bank policy (it sets the weather), ETF flows and institutional demand (they move the tide), halvings and supply dynamics (they reshape the shoreline), and microstructure quirks around year-end (thin liquidity loves to amplify moves). Throw in miner selling and a dash of profit-taking, and you’ve got the recipe for either a tight gap to the yearly high or a yawning one.

So what would push the next Boxing Day higher? Easier monetary policy, steady net demand from big funds, and miners keeping selling to a minimum would help. What could widen the gap? A surprise slowdown in growth, rising real yields, or big funds deciding to harvest gains into thin holiday order books.

At the end of the day, Boxing Day is a convenient milestone — a single printable number that pins a messy, noisy year to a specific moment. It’s fun to read as a mood gauge, but don’t confuse it with prophecy. The story from one Boxing Day to the next is just the market writing the next chapter: sometimes it’s a plot twist, sometimes it’s a slow burn, and occasionally it’s a fireworks finale.

Now sip your tea, squint at the chart, and enjoy the seasonal theater. The next close will tell us whether the market was baking a cake or saving the calories for next year.