Why 26.5 Billion XRP Are Underwater — Even With a ~$2 Price

Yes, it looks weird: roughly 26.5 billion XRP — about 41.5% of the circulating supply — are sitting at a realized loss right now even though the market price is hovering around $2.10–$2.15. On-chain analytics show only about 58.5% of XRP holders are in the green, the weakest reading since late November 2024 when XRP was trading near $0.53. Translation: a lot of coins were bought up at higher prices and are now awkwardly waiting for a comeback.

Why so many tokens are underwater

Most of the damage comes down to timing. A big chunk of this year’s trading happened around elevated price levels, so buyers who jumped in late got stuck when momentum faded. That clustering around higher prices means a large portion of the supply needs a decent rally just to break even.

Derivatives activity hasn’t been kind either. Futures open interest has shrunk dramatically — from nearly $10 billion earlier in the year to around $3.8 billion more recently — which generally signals that speculative firepower is cooling off and traders are stepping back from one-way bets. When open interest drops, price moves can stall because fewer people are levering up to push the market.

Price action reflects that cautious mood: XRP has been mostly range-bound near the $2.10 mark since its post-election spike, disappointing traders hoping for a clear breakout. Over the past six months the token has slipped about 12% and sits roughly 40% below its July cycle high of around $3.65.

Another pressure point: long-term holders who bought in under $1 during the late-2024 run are taking profits. On-chain metrics show profit-taking from that cohort has jumped a lot — roughly a 240% increase in realized profit withdrawals since September, climbing from roughly $65 million per day to nearly $220 million per day. When the big holders cash out, even gradually, it adds selling pressure that can keep price pinned.

Why it’s not automatically curtains for XRP

That said, this isn’t necessarily a death knell. A number of structural and demand-side factors still point to potential upside over time. The company behind XRP resolved its long-running regulatory fight via a settlement earlier this year, and it has beefed up its balance sheet and product suite with a sizable capital raise, some strategic acquisitions, and a handful of partnerships aimed at expanding global footprint and payments utility.

Institutional interest has been showing up in other ways too. Several spot XRP funds launched in November 2025, and early inflows into some products — one fund recorded nearly $278 million in initial interest — suggest there’s curiosity from bigger, slower-moving money. That kind of on-ramp can matter once investors stop leaning on short-term headlines and start thinking about multi-year use cases.

Social chatter remains lively, and smaller retail wallets have been trimming positions: holders with under 100 XRP sold around 1.38% of their balances since early November. Retail capitulation like that sometimes precedes rebounds — sold-out shorts and exhausted sellers can clear the way for a bounce.

In plain English: a sizable chunk of XRP is underwater because a lot of buying clustered at higher prices, speculative futures activity cooled off, and early buyers grabbed profits. But legal clarity, corporate moves, and slow-burning institutional pickup give some reason to believe the story isn’t over. Still — it’s a volatile asset class, so expect bumps, surprises, and the occasional meme-worthy market wobble.