Forget Moonshots — Crypto's Next Comeback Could Be Stocks, Not Tokens

The case for owning the shops, not the snacks

Crypto markets have been on a diet: total market value is down roughly 36% year-over-year, altcoins sit about 45% below their October 2025 peak, and Bitcoin is having one of those “worst start to the year in over a decade” vibes. Meanwhile, money is drifting toward flashy AI stocks and big IPOs. After three years of half-hearted altseasons, token narratives have a shelf life shorter than a meme’s attention span.

So some folks are asking: why chase the next token when you can buy the companies that actually make money when crypto activity heats up? Recently, a set of ETFs quietly bought about $5.4 million across four crypto-related public companies — Coinbase, Circle, Bullish, and Robinhood — essentially doubling down on the idea that owning the payment counters could be less drama and more predictable payoff.

How the business math actually behaves

These public companies don’t trade on rumors of the next narrative; they collect fees, custody assets, run order books, and earn interest on reserves. That makes their revenue more directly tied to trading volumes, stablecoin circulation, custody balances, and derivatives flow — things you can count, even if they’re volatile.

To be specific: Coinbase reported mid-single-digit market share in spot trading, a huge jump in derivatives activity on a trailing basis, and a double-digit portion of global crypto assets in custody. But transaction revenue can swing fast — Coinbase’s recent quarter showed transaction revenue down materially, pushing total revenue and earnings into weaker territory when volumes fade.

Circle, the stablecoin engine, had about $77 billion of USDC in circulation at one point and saw on-chain transaction volumes surge year-over-year. Its revenue depends heavily on how big that circulation is and what the reserve yields look like; as a rule of thumb, every 100 basis points of yield on $77 billion is roughly $770 million a year before costs — so tiny shifts in rates can mean big swings in headline numbers.

Robinhood’s crypto revenue and trading notional have also pulled back materially, while institutional platforms like Bullish reported tens of billions in digital asset sales and modest profitability metrics. The point: these companies feel the market’s heartbeat directly, and when trading returns their top-line can bounce faster than token communities re-ignite a new meme.

Bull case, bear case, and the comfortable middle ground

In the sunny scenario, retail speculation comes back, derivatives markets heat up, and stablecoin supply keeps expanding. That would put transaction-based businesses first in line for a rerating: even a single-digit increase in transaction revenue can add tens or hundreds of millions to quarterly results, which investors notice quicker than they notice which Layer-1 token just got cool again.

In the gloomy scenario, capital stays parked in AI hype and public-market stories, volumes stay thin, and the firms that rely on trading and custody see prolonged weakness. Stablecoin-focused companies are hostage to circulation and reserve yields, while brokers and exchanges suffer when retail and institutional activity dries up.

So what’s the trade-off? Betting on tokens means hunting for the next breakout narrative, timing unlocks, and hoping rotation lands where you’re already positioned. Buying the exchanges, wallets, and stablecoin issuers is a bet on activity itself — maybe less sexy, but also less about catching the precise meme and more about owning the toll booth.

Short version: if you want exposure to crypto without navigating every dramatic narrative twist, owning the businesses that monetize crypto activity is a sensible, slightly boring alternative — and sometimes boring wins.