XRP Eyes $0.90 as ETFs Wrestle Whale Selling Pressure

Quick snapshot

XRP has been on a bit of a rollercoaster — recently trading around $1.11 after sliding into a 2026 low in early June and losing several billion in market value across a few sessions. That dip came even as regulated ETF buyers were piling in, with a very strong month of inflows in May.

On-chain indicators suggest a wave of sellers booking losses: the short-term realized profit-to-loss metric is down near 0.38, which basically means loss-taking is outpacing winners by a lot. Put another way, many holders are underwater versus their average cost — the network’s aggregate realized price sits noticeably above the current market price.

At the same time, transaction activity and fees on the ledger have collapsed from last year’s speculative peak — fees are a fraction of what they were, pointing to much lower organic on-chain demand. Meanwhile, big wallets are behaving like they own the place: exchange flow data shows a tiny group of large holders dominating transfers, and the count of mid-size and large XRP wallets is at multi-year highs.

Seven U.S. spot ETFs for XRP are live and hold a sizable chunk of tokens in custody (hundreds of millions of XRP), and cumulative regulated inflows since late 2025 have been material. But those steady ETF purchases have so far been met by selling or loss realization in the open market, which has kept any big rebound from sticking.

Bull vs. bear — two ways this goes

Bull case (bring the confetti): ETFs keep buying, big wallets stop dumping and instead act as buyers, and the loss-booking finally peters out. If that happens, prices calm above $1.00, network activity and fees stop sliding, and the ETF demand starts to show up in the chart. In this scenario the ~$0.90 area remains a historical reference point — a kind of “hold-your-breath” line where longer-term trend support lives — but the ETF bids soak up selling before that zone is tested.

Bear case (cue the dramatic music): sellers keep realizing losses at a higher clip than buyers are willing to absorb, network fees stay depressed, and ETF demand—while real—can’t overcome the supply hitting the market. If the $1.00 psychological level fails, $0.90 becomes the next logical zone where buyers might step in, roughly a double-digit percentage below current prices and close to the cost basis of many long-term holders.

Market odds aren’t one-sided: crowd markets and prediction books put significant probability on the downside near-term, and the low realized-profit ratio says there could still be more capitulation to go before things stabilize.

Bottom line

So what should you remember? Regulated ETF demand for XRP is real and persistent, but it’s currently getting absorbed by sellers and loss-taking. Big wallets are accumulating in size, but on-chain activity and sellers’ losses are preventing a clean rebound. That makes $0.90 a meaningful reference point — either it holds as a support-ish area that keeps the peace, or it’s the next level where price action will reveal who’s winning the tug-of-war between ETF buyers and whale sellers.

Short version: if you like drama, crypto has your ticket; if you prefer lower-risk setups, wait for clearer signs that selling has stopped and on-chain demand is climbing again.